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Daily Commentary

Commentary for 5/11/2009

  05/12/09 12:04:25 PM



MONDAY 5/11/09 - A.M.

Overnight and outside markets suggest a weaker CBOT futures' opening. Crop friendly weather forecast also dot the wire. US bean futures should be in a retreat mode, as talk that China may be slowing imports after building a sizeable inventory.

The USDA will release its May crop production and S&D reports tomorrow morning. The average industry guess for all-winter wheat crop is 1.527 billion bushels. The average estimate for wheat ending stocks is 637 million. The numbers are all shaved lower; 'how much lower is the poser'. How close these numbers match the Gov.'s newest projection will fuel Chicago's initial price lurch.

According to a US Wheat Associates official, the US expects to capture 25% of the Middle East wheat market and North Africa in the marketing year 2008/9. The US market share has been in decline due to significantly cheaper Black Sea imports. The dollar's value will be a vital driver in how much wheat tonnage is booked in these highly competitive import zones.

After notching small daily gains, SWW cash bids stood taller at the end of the week. Trading volume light with a few more country bushels coming to market. SWW 'swing demand' still checks in on a regular basis.


MONDAY 5/11/09 - P.M.


CBOT futures circled the track and ended close to home. Some thrashing around ahead of tomorrow's USDA report but little new price discovery. SWW values felt firm, very little action reported. Holding on weather, reports and outside market tendencies.

 
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