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Daily Commentary
Commentary for 5/8/2009  05/11/09 5:02:47 PM



FRIDAY 5/8/09 - A.M.

Traders could be in for a 'position squaring day' ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report. The Gov.s new S&D report includes US and world 09/10 wheat, corn and bean production estimates. CBOT futures supported by lower 2009 U.S. wheat output estimates, a weaker buck and a higher equities market. The average  industry estimates pegged 2009 U.S. winter  wheat production at 1.527 billion bushels; off 341 million from last year's tally.  Inflation is also creeping back into the risk equation conversation. 

Despite drought damage, China, the world's largest wheat producer and consumer is expected to harvest 107.2 million Mt of winter wheat this year; up  0.2 % from last year. China's total wheat new-crop output is estimated to grow a smidge to 113.2 million Mt. 

SWW track values appear steady based on light country selling and continued off-shore demand. Australia's inability to consistantly offer soft white wheat has proved beneficial to PNW merchandising interests and prospects.



FRIDAY 5/8/09 - P.M.

Solid CBOT wheat price surge. Players drank the 'things are getting better 'Kool-Aid' and liked it. Beginning support drivers grew in stature and influence as the end-of-the-week session marched to its close. Spec and managed funds turned the page and jetted to the long side. One trader exclaimed, 'It just didn't feel right not be covered and then some.' Is this sound reasoning ? 

Meanwhile back in the PNW, sunnier spring weather will allow pent-up field work anxiety to dissipate. Local soft white bids slowly gaining speed. Both sides of the aisle alert. Trading is guarded.

 
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