Almira Farmers Whse. Co.

Daily Commentary

Commentary for 4/15/2009 04/16/09 11:33:09 AM

4/15 am ............................ fyi............................ it seems th market has gone back to letting the equities (dji) take the lead in commodity pricing ...................... the commercials are comfortable with the old crop supplies and still not affected by new crop possibilities ........... a bird in the hand mentality ........................ HRW suffering freeze losses, HRS suffering flood losses, world winter wheat plantings down //// vs. //// good SRW crop expectations, possible increased in spring wheat world plantings, large carryouts in all commodities except soybeans.............. bearish nearby technicals and fundamentals ..........................jdb

Almira Farmers Warehouse - News

4/15 am .............................. market in the toilet nearby unless you own soybeans, which have rallied $2 since the first of March .......................... expect continued down pressure.............. the futures market spreads are bearish ..................... it won't be long until we see our traditional SWW buyers starting to book new crop positions ............. but for now, plenty of bushels and SWW is at yard sale prices vs. HRW for anybody who cares to buy ............................jb

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WEDNESDAY 4/15/09 - A.M.

Overnight markets edged higher. Weather concerns, dabs of short covering and a positive bean pit should help wheat stay near yesterday's close. However, weaker corn could limit up ticks.

A private 'Down Under' forecasters says, Australia's 2009/10 wheat crop should yield 22.7million Mt; up 6% from last year's tally. Good summer rains helped expand plantings and expectations.

Under its SBS program, Japan seeks to buy 61,300 Mt of food wheat, 33,400 Mt of food barley and 15,250 Mt of malt barley. Two South Korean flour millers tendered for 43,800 Mt of US wheat for July 15-August 15 shipment. Regular SWW off-shore buyers targeting new crop delivery months. Some 'swing buyers' still testing nearby offerings.

So far, light country selling matches current pipeline needs. For now, local market prices reflect a supportive range.

WEDNESDAY 4/15/09 - P.M.

Futures market worked lower as new news lacked punch. Corn's decline helped to compress wheat values. Bulls need to be fed daily and today's ration was low fat.

A combo of government donation packages and extra swing biz could still spice up a 'routine' old crop demand docket. In the meantime, the Nile boys ride again. Egypt's state main wheat buying agency (GASC) will launch an all-comers, overnight tender to buy optional-origin wheat cargoes of 25,000 to 60,000 Mt. Shipment is set for May 11-21. Black Sea and Eastern European origins look to be the most aggressive sellers.