6/24/2009 Today's marketing stew gets doses of the same 'outside and inside' ingredients; the stirring speed remains variable. The Senate's probe into last year's wheat prices concluded that 'index funds' were the reason for price spikes and lack of CBOT contract convergence. The 'blue ribbon panel recommended the "CFTC consider pulling the position limit waiver for index funds." They should enforce the standard limit of 6,500 positions for index traders in the wheat market. It appears the Gov. is going long on market regulation and oversight. Until the 'new rules of the game' are road tested'; players are tentative.
Egypt has ordered a second 56,000 Mt Russian wheat cargo to be re-exported. The decision was made because the importer "violated the contract agreement by not presenting an international cargo inspection certificate". Local white wheat track bids failed to launch. New export demand inquiries ongoing, but known bookings s
ketchy. The countdown to harvest continues. Overall SWW crop conditions and production estimates reside in a 'liberal average zone'.
6/25/2009 Egypt's main government wheat buyer, GASC, booked 60,000 Mt of French wheat at $5.21 per bushel for shipment July 16 to 31. New quality specs and inspection requirements may have 'disqualified' the cheaper Black Sea offer pool. The IGC increases their 2009/10 world wheat closing stocks estimate to 168 mln Mt from their earlier forecast of 167 mln Mt. The weekly wheat export sales report showed SWW column dented by Korean, 27,200 Mt; Japan. 21,000 Mt; and, the Philippines, 20,900 Mt. Japan contracted 44,362 Mt of food wheat and 22,000 Mt of food barley under the simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) tender system; shipments from June to September. South Korea is back in to buy 25,300 MT of assorted US wheat for Oct.10-Nov.10 shipment. The wheels of commerce are turning alright, just at lower RPMs. A stronger buck, typical seasonal harvest pressures and pending futures regulations are 'compressing Chicago's values. Market wags sometimes need a close shave from Occam's Razor in order to achieve better clarity. SWW track bids filtered lower by a percentage. Not much country trading action reported. June and July logistics important in shallow old-crop conditions.
6/26/2009 CBOT July options expire today. The USDA's acreage and stocks report, plus FND happens on Tuesday, June 30. Traders expected to fine-tune/trim positions before the Tuesday bell. A weaker dollar should help futures stay near yesterday's close. US and world weather ( El Nino rumblings), harvest, quality and stock's reports bombard reporters/players with new data streams. Local soft white prices bumping around a narrow trading range. Off shore interests on the prowl for September through January delivery. Buyers show no urgency, but serious 'tire kicking' none the less. Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Chile, Indonesia, the Philippines, and regulars are all in the demand matrix.
